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评论翻译
Yap You Wai, former Chairman of Risk Mgmt Committee (2006-2017)，Lived in Ho Chi Minh City2008–2011
Which countries in SEA have the darkest future?
Guess the term, “darkest” or “dark” is a tad gloomy and might not be so suitably used in our forecast or speculation?
[1] There’s this tiny country called Timor Leste which was released from the grasp of Indonesia not so long ago? The country has a small oil exploration but apart from that nothing much else? The half island has some pristine beaches but they need investment to be developed into resorts and the Auth’s solid plan to promote tourism? At present, the education level of the pop. is rather low and really in need of an upgrade. Highly challenging……
我想“最黑暗”或“黑暗”这个词有点悲观，可能不太适合用于我们的预测或猜测？
[1] 有一个叫东帝汶的小国，不久前从印度尼西亚的控制下独立出来。这个国家只有少量的石油储量，但除此之外就没有别的了。这个半岛有一些原始的海滩，但它们需要投资才能发展成度假胜地。目前，该国大众的教育水平很低，确实需要提升，但这极具挑战性……
[2] There’s another smallish country located btwn Sabah & Sarawak, both in the Federation of M’sia, in the north of Borneo known as Brunei? It has been ruled by the only Sultan since gaining independence from the Brits and its development was previously financed by oil revenue. But as oil price is on the decline and the demand for oil is less certain going fwd, Brunei’s future isn’t very bright? Also, the Sultan is growing old and the successor might not be able to manage the Admin as well?
[2] 有另一个位于在婆罗洲北部马来西亚联邦的沙巴和沙捞越之间的小国叫做文莱，自从脱离英国独立以来，它一直由唯一的苏丹统治。它的发展以前是靠石油收入，但随着油价的下跌和对石油的需求越来越不确定，文莱的未来并不光明。而且，苏丹正在变老，继任者可能也无法管理整个国家。
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Mohammad Dayyan
I am surprised only one person has mentioned this nation Brunei.
The people of Brunei enjoy a lot free healthcare and no income tax, but that soon maybe over. The Bruneian economy is heavily dependent on oil and natural gas.
But when that finishes they will lose all that. The countries gdp growth rate has been inconsistent.
我很惊讶只有一个人提到文莱这个国家。
文莱人民享受着很多免费的医疗保健，没有所得税，但这可能很快就会结束，因为文莱的经济严重依赖石油和天然气。
但当这一切结束时，他们将失去一切，因为这个国家的GDP增长率一直都不稳定。
Also they have the highest unemployment in ASEAN nations (sorry it is Blury)
They better start diversification or they will become a poverty stricken nation
而且他们的失业率在东盟国家中是最高
他们最好开始多样化，否则他们将成为一个贫穷的国家。
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Anonymous
In the 169 years from its founding on July 4, 1776, to the end of World War II, the United States was at war 93% of the time. On November 1, 1955, to April 30, 1975, the United States spent nearly 600,000 troops and 150 billion dollars to fight a bitter war in Vietnam for 20 years, but finally lost. The Vietnam War was undoubtedly the biggest Waterloo that the United States had encountered.
从1776年7月4日建国到第二次世界大战结束的169年间，美国93%的时间处于战争状态。从1955年11月1日至1975年4月30日，美国花费近60万兵力和1500亿美元，在越南打了20年苦战，但最终还是输了。越南战争无疑是美国遭遇的最大的滑铁卢。
The warm exchanges between the US and Vietnam in recent years were initially not well received by the outside world. In particular, in 2020, when the world was fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh spoke on the phone frequently.
美国和越南近年来的热情交流最初并不受到外界的欢迎。尤其是在2020年，当全世界都在抗击大流行时，美国国务卿蓬佩奥和越南副总理兼外长范平明经常通电话。
In fact, after the friendship between the United States and Vietnam, the American capitalist thought was also brought in by Pham Binh Minh. Meanwhile, the economic contradiction in the United States was also transferred after the settlement of the epidemic in the United States. As a result, more Vietnamese agricultural products could be exported to the United States and American factories began to appear in large numbers in Vietnam. Of course, the United States is not so kind, in addition to economic and trade exchanges, the United States political infiltration is also going on.
事实上，在美越友好之后，美国的资本主义思想也被范平明引入。同时，当疫情在美国得到解决后，美越之间的经济矛盾也将随之转移。因此，更多的越南农产品可以出口到美国，美国工厂也会大量出现在越南。当然，美国也不是那么好心，除了经贸往来，美国的政治渗透也在进行中。
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Abhishek Das, Young businessman/entrepreneur，Lives in India
If I speak of a big economy then it's definitely Thailand . Unless they take some necessary steps that country won't step out of the middle income trap.
I feel that Thai government should start giving incentives to families to have more babies and change the old age demographics since it is also acting as a time bomb.
如果要说一个大一些的经济体，那肯定是泰国。除非他们采取一些必要的措施，否则这个国家将无法走出中等收入陷阱。
我觉得泰国政府应该开始鼓励家庭多生孩子，改变老龄化的人口结构，因为这也是一个定时炸弹。
Thailand has invested quite well in retail like malls but they should invest more on universities too. Check the number of universities by countries and Thailand is way behind Vietnam and Phillipines. A good tertiary education will help them to achieve the target of industry 4.0 .
Tourism should never be 20% of GDP, it's risky. Now thais may say so should we shoo travellers away. Well, let's says have the tourism but use those resources to invest in other high end services like IT just like Malaysia.
泰国在零售类商场方面的投资相当不错，但他们也应该在大学方面加大投资。按国家划分，泰国的大学数量远远落后于越南和菲律宾。良好的高等教育将帮助他们实现工业4.0的目标。
旅游业永远不应该占GDP的20%，这是有风险的。现在泰国人可能会问，我们应该把游客拒之门外吗？好吧，我们可以拥有旅游业，但我们也可以利用这些资源投资于如IT之类的其他高端服务业（就像马来西亚一样）。
The kind of budget Thailand has they can easily invest in thier own companies R$D. It's fine that you are exporting foreign cars but you should have ur own too now as well.
You have a good expat population but mostly they are sort of lifestyle entrepreneurs. Try to create that ecosystem to bring those expats who will invest in ur software and startups. Your neighbouring nations like Vietnam and indonesia are building startups unicorns. And this is the age of startups unicorns ( companies with billion dollar valuations) .
泰国有这样的预算，他们可以很容易地投资于他们自己的公司的研发。虽然出口外国品牌的汽车很不错，但现在是时候出口你自己品牌的汽车了。
泰国有很多外籍人口，但他们大多只是在泰国度假。所以可以试着创造一个生态系统，把那些愿意投资于泰国的软件和初创企业的外籍人士带到这里来。像越南和印度尼西亚这样的邻国正在建立独角兽创业公司，现在是初创独角兽公司（估值10亿美元的公司）的时代了。
